I Disagree – Meb Faber Analysis


What funding perception do you maintain that the overwhelming majority of your friends (75%+) don’t share?

In 2019, I made a decision to start out publicly answering the query above and including to it over time. You’ll be able to take a look at the complete thread here, however my current podcast with Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson touched on the identical subject so at their ‘nudging,’ I’m sharing the complete listing under too.

Apologies for offending anybody prematurely!

Table of Contents

2019

1. Investing primarily based on dividend yield alone is a tax-inefficient and nonsensical funding technique.

See our outdated e-book, Shareholder Yield: A Higher Strategy to Dividend Investing, for more information, free obtain right here.

2. The Federal Reserve has performed a superb job.

I publicly say on a regular basis that they need to simply peg the Fed Fund Price to the 2-year, and my buddy Tom McClellan has a superb chart illustrating this view…

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3. Pattern following methods deserve a significant allocation to most portfolios.

We have now in all probability the best pattern allocation of any RIA that I do know with our Trinity fashions, the default allocation is half!

4. A primary low value international market portfolio of ETFs will outperform the overwhelming majority of establishments over time.

See our outdated GAA e-book for more information, free obtain right here.

5. US traders ought to be allocating a minimal of fifty% of their inventory allocation to non-US international locations.

Try our publish “The Case for International Investing” for more information.

6. 13F replication is a greater method to investing in most long-term hedge funds than investing within the hedge funds themselves.

Make investments with the Home free e-book obtain right here.

7. So long as you have got a number of the most important elements (international shares, bonds, actual belongings) your asset allocation doesn’t actually matter. What does matter is charges and taxes.

See our outdated GAA e-book for more information, free obtain right here. Plus, right here’s an outdated Twitter thread on the subject.

8. A easy quant display on public shares will outperform most personal fairness funds.

Study extra about this by listening to my previous podcast episodes with Dan Rasmussen & Jeff Hooke.

9. An inexpensive time-frame to guage a supervisor or technique is 10, perhaps 20 years.

We wrote a paper on this subject, you’ll be able to learn it right here.

10. I don’t really feel like I’ve to have an opinion on Telsa inventory.

Though I’ve shared my opinion with Elon on different matters earlier than (learn here)

11. A passive index just isn’t the identical factor as a market cap index (anymore).

2020

12. Monetary advisors and asset managers are 4x leveraged the inventory market, and will/ought to hedge that publicity….and even personal no US shares!

Learn our longer publish on the subject right here.

13. Most endowments and pensions could be higher off firing their workers and shifting to a scientific portfolio of ETFs.

You needed to know I wrote a weblog publish about this, proper? CalPERS lastly informed me they received’t rent me to do that. I attempted…

2021

14. Everybody likes to complain about manipulation, THE FED, r/wsb, yadda yadda… Markets are functioning as they all the time have. Which is, usually. Quick squeeze? Yawn, been occurring without end. 

Jamie Catherwood had a terrific post on the historical past of quick squeezes. 

15. Excessive inventory market valuations usually are not justified by low rates of interest.

Learn my publish about this from January 2021 right here. 

16. A world diversified portfolio of belongings is *much less dangerous* than placing your protected cash in brief time period bonds or payments.

This is without doubt one of the matters coated in The Keep Wealthy Portfolio publish. 

2022

17. The CAPE Ratio is a helpful indicator and issue.

Right here’s my FAQ with every little thing it is advisable to know concerning the CAPE Ratio. 

18. It doesn’t have an effect on your funding consequence should you personal US shares. You could possibly personal 0% and just do tremendous.

Right here’s my tweet about this with the chart under. 

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19. A portfolio of sovereign bonds weighted by yield is superior to at least one weighted by market cap and whole debt issuance.

Learn our white paper on this right here. 

… to be continued …

Am I overestimating how a lot I disagree with others? What are beliefs you disagree together with your friends on? Be happy to answer to the unique thread here